In a recent Monmouth University poll of voters who self-identify as Democratic voters or Democratic-leaning voters, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are tied for the lead, with Joe Biden also within the poll’s margin of error of first place.
According to the poll, which is of a sample of 298 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters conducted using scientific polling methods and conducted from August 16 to August 20, Warren and Sanders were each at 20%, with Biden in a very close third place at 19%. With a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7%, that means that Warren, Sanders, and Biden are all within the polling margin of error for first place among Democratic voters. The poll represents a significant drop in support for Biden compared to the previous Monmouth University national poll, which had Biden with a fairly comfortable lead against divided opposition. The poll also represents a modest increase in support for both Warren and Sanders. Warren had the highest net favorable rating among Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters of any of the Democratic presidential candidates, at +52 net favorability (65% favorable, 13% unfavorable).
It is important to note that the most recent Monmouth national poll is a significant outlier compared to previous Monmouth polls, especially in regards to Biden’s support, which had been around 30%, plus or minus three percentage points, in five previous Monmouth national polls dating back to January of this year. The steady surge in Warren’s support over the last four Monmouth polls, on the other hand, is not an outlier: according to a Democratic presidential nomination polling tracker by The Economist, there has been a steady surge in support for Warren, with Warren surging from the mid-to-high single digits in the first three months of this year to around 18%. As of the publishing of this blog post, The Economist‘s polling tracker does not include the most recent Monmouth poll.