A few days ago, the pollster Morning Consult released the May 2019 edition of their state-by-state polls of Donald Trump’s approval rating, and there are multiple states that are normally thought of as reliably Republican-leaning where Trump’s approval rating is below 50%. In the 13-state priority coverage area of this blog, four states meet such a criteria: Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, and North Dakota.
In Indiana, Trump’s approval rating is 49%, and Trump’s disapproval rating is 46%. In Kansas, Trump’s approval rating is 48%, and Trump’s disapproval rating is 47%. In Nebraska, Trump’s approval rating is 49%, and Trump’s disapproval rating is 47%. In North Dakota, Trump’s approval rating is 48%, and Trump’s disapproval rating is 47%. The margin of error for Morning Consult’s state presidential approval polling ranges from 1%-4%, depending on the state. In Indiana, the margin of error is 1%. In Kansas and Nebraska, the margin of error is 2%. In North Dakota, the margin of error is 3%.
All four of the states in question are states that Donald Trump won with a majority of the vote in 2016. Furthermore, Democrats hold only two officially-partisan statewide elected offices in any of the four states (the governorship and lieutenant governorship in Kansas) and only three of the 17 U.S. House seats in the four states (two in Indiana and one in Kansas). For Trump to have an approval rating below 50% in states as conservative as Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, and North Dakota proves that Trump’s destructive policies and style of politics is becoming unpopular in most of the country.
Also, the Morning Consult polling may not be an outlier. Internal polling conducted for Trump’s re-election campaign, which was leaked to the media, shows Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump in a hypothetical general election matchup by only two percentage points in Texas (no data of any hypothetical matchups of other potential Democratic nominees against Trump was leaked), a state outside this blog’s priority coverage area, which dovetails with Morning Consult’s polling showing Trump’s approval/disapproval numbers at 49% approve and 46% disapprove in Texas, which are similar numbers to the Trump approval/disapproval numbers that Morning Consult has for Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, and North Dakota. Long story short, if Trump’s approvals remain where they are now, there is a significant likelihood that Trump could lose re-election in a massive landslide comparable to Lyndon Johnson’s landslide victory in 1964.